CBO: Cassidy-Graham Would Increase Uninsured by Millions, Cut Medicaid by $1 Trillion

Excellent summary by the Center on Budget Policies and Priorities of the limited CBO analysis published on Monday. As stated, the bill would have a number of incredibly devastating effects on US healthcare:

  • Millions of additional people would be uninsured compared with CBO’s baseline projections each year over the 2018-2026 period.
  • Eliminates the ACA’s major coverage expansions — the Medicaid expansion and marketplace subsidies — and replaces them with a block grant that provides $230 billion less over the first decade than under current law.
  • Federal Medicaid spending would shrink by about $1 trillion between 2017 and 2026.
  • Millions of fewer people would be enrolled in the individual market.
  • Without individual mandates and subsidies, states would have no choice but to eliminate or weaken the ACA’s protections for people with pre-existing conditions, including the prohibition against insurers charging higher premiums based on health status and the requirement that insurers cover the essential health benefits.
  • The bill would reduce the deficit by at least $133 billion through 2026.

And as if that weren't all bad enough, the Commonwealth Fund reports that the bill would eliminate 345,000 jobs - the majority of them in states like Maryland, that expanded Medicaid. They also project that states’ overall economies, as measured by gross state products, will erode by $39 billion (in current dollars) in 2026.

In Maryland, they project that we would lose 20,631 jobs. More than half of which would come from the health sector, and our state economy would lose $2.4 million in gross state product by 2026.